The Isthmian, The Southern and The Northern Prem

So now it’s time to try and find out which is the strongest of the three step 3 Leagues.

I’ll use the same principle I used in looking at Conference North and South: examining the change in success rates from season to season for teams moving between step 2 and step 3, in either direction.

Luckily, all the moves involving  Northern  Premier League clubs are to or from Conference North - so that means very few problems with that.

But there is one, and it occurs twice: it's what to do with clubs which were demoted, rather than relegated.

There are two examples involving Conference North clubs who ended up in the NPL the following season:  Boston, in 2007-08, and Northwich, in 2009-10.

Boston finished 10th in 2007-08 with a success rate of 50% but were relegated for infringing the Conference's insolvency regulations; the same regulations did for Northwich in 2009-10 after they had finished 12th of 20 with a success rate of 53.75% - their bottom half position being accounted for by a ten-point deduction.
I'd argue that teams demoted for non-footballing reasons would be likely to suffer more than their fellow-relegatees, albeit from a stronger initial position.   I'd also point out that there aren't any teams promoted for non-footballing reasons to even things up.


Take a look at this table, showing all the clubs relegated to the NPL from Conference North - including Northwich  and Boston:

Tables for the NPL and Isthmian League will show this information:
First of two seasons covered;
Team name;
Success rate at step 2;
Success rate at step 3;
Change in success rate

				Table A
				step 2	step 3	Change
200405		Runcorn	..	38.10%	27.38%	-10.71%
200405		Ashton	..	29.76%	42.86%	13.10%
200405		Bradford PA	..	22.62%	34.52%	11.90%
200506		Hednesford	..	33.33%	59.52%	26.19%
200607		Worksop	..	39.29%	47.50%	8.21%
200708		Boston	..	50.00%	44.05%	-5.95%
200708		Leigh	..	23.81%	34.52%	10.71%
200809		Burscough	..	30.95%	40.79%	9.84%
200809		Hucknall	..	27.38%	42.11%	14.72%
200910		Northwich	..	53.75%	53.57%	0.18%
201011		Stafford	..	30.00%	42.86%	12.86%
201112		Blyth Sp	..	32.14%	42.86%	10.71%
201112		Eastwood	..	19.05%	14.29%	-4.76%
				33.09%	40.52%	7.46%

You'll see there that Boston suffered a decline in their success rate - something that only happened to Runcorn and Eastwood among the other relegated clubs.  Both of those had serious financial problems - Eastwood's coming about from a decision near he end of the 2010-11 season when he FA decided that they wouldn't be allowed to participate in the play-offs because of issues with their Coronation Park ground: that led to a decline in funding for them and they are still feeling the effects today.
I'm minded to leave Boston and Northwich out of these calculations. Doing so would make the NPL  success rate about 1 point lower than it would with them included.  Leaving them out would, in the interests of consistency, require Northwich (again!) to be left out of the Conf Prem/Conf North calculation. That’s because  in the  2004-05 season, when there were only three teams relegated,  The Vics finished one place outside the relegation spots but  were relegated in place of Forest Green over issues with their ground.  Their finishing position even before relegation was a false one anyway, partly brought about by a ten-point deduction.
That would improve the Conference North rating just a touch, but not enough to make it appear stronger than Conference South.

This is the same table, with Boston and Northwich excluded:

				Table B
				step 2	step 3	change
200405		Runcorn	..	38.10%	27.38%	-10.71%
200405		Ashton	..	29.76%	42.86%	13.10%
200405		Bradford PA	..	22.62%	34.52%	11.90%
200506		Hednesford	..	33.33%	59.52%	26.19%
200607		Worksop	..	39.29%	47.50%	8.21%
200708		Leigh	..	23.81%	34.52%	10.71%
200809		Burscough	..	30.95%	40.79%	9.84%
200809		Hucknall	..	27.38%	42.11%	14.72%
201011		Stafford	..	30.00%	42.86%	12.86%
201112		Blyth Sp	..	32.14%	42.86%	10.71%
201112		Eastwood	..	19.05%	14.29%	-4.76%
				29.68%	39.02%	9.34%

You'll see that the average rate of change goes up a little.

Now on to the promoted clubs:

				Table C
				step 2	step 3	Change
200405	..	Hyde	..	48.81%	75.00%	-26.19%
200405	..	Workington	..	48.81%	70.24%	-21.43%
200506	..	Blyth	..	55.95%	75.00%	-19.05%
200506	..	Farsley C	..	58.33%	66.67%	-8.33%
200607	..	Burscough	..	54.76%	69.05%	-14.29%
200607	..	Telford	..	66.67%	67.86%	-1.19%
200708	..	Fleetwood	..	53.57%	78.75%	-25.18%
200708	..	Gateshead	..	66.67%	73.75%	-7.08%
200809	..	Eastwood	..	48.75%	73.81%	-25.06%
200809	..	Ilkeston	..	56.25%	70.24%	-13.99%
200910	..	Guiseley	..	66.25%	71.05%	-4.80%
200910	..	Boston	..	70.00%	71.05%	-1.05%
201011	..	Halifax	..	63.10%	80.95%	-17.86%
201011	..	Colwyn Bay	..	45.24%	65.48%	-20.24%
201112	..	Chester	..	86.90%	82.14%	4.76%
201112	..	Bradford PA	..	55.95%	64.29%	-8.33%
				59.13%	72.21%	-13.08%

Just one team there - Chester - showing an increase in their success rate from one year to the next; there are small falls for Boston and Telford, both of whom might have considered their natural home to be considerably higher than step 3.

So the average change in success rate between the NPL and Conference North works out at a little over 11 points.


Next, the Isthmian League.

And we'll begin with the relegated clubs again;

				Table D
				step 2	step 3	change
200405	..	Margate	..	38.10%	46.43%	8.33%
200405	..	Redbridge	..	29.76%	13.10%	-16.67%
200506	..	Carshalton	..	38.10%	47.62%	9.52%
200708	..	Sutton Utd	..	22.62%	58.33%	35.71%
200809	..	Bognor Regis Town	..	30.95%	38.10%	7.14%
201011	..	Lewes	..	32.14%	61.90%	29.76%
201112	..	Hampton & Richmond	..	38.10%	47.62%	9.52%
201112	..	Thurrock	..	25.00%	35.71%	10.71%
				31.85%	43.60%	11.76%

So just one team showing a fall in success rate - and that was Redbridge, who, like quite a few teams in Essex around then, were on a downwards path because of a loss of financial backing.

The promoted teams:

				Table E
				step 2	step 3	change
200405	..	Yeading	..	40.48%	72.62%	-32.14%
200405	..	Eastleigh	..	53.57%	67.86%	-14.29%
200506	..	Braintree	..	63.10%	78.57%	-15.48%
200506	..	Fisher	..	48.81%	70.24%	-21.43%
200607	..	Hampton & Richmond	..	66.67%	69.05%	-2.38%
200607	..	Bromley	..	53.57%	67.86%	-14.29%
200708	..	AFC Wimbledon	..	73.81%	60.71%	13.10%
200708	..	Chelmsford	..	64.29%	72.62%	-8.33%
200809	..	Dover Ath	..	60.71%	84.52%	-23.81%
200809	..	Staines	..	58.33%	70.24%	-11.90%
200910	..	Dartford	..	50.00%	76.19%	-26.19%
200910	..	Boreham Wood	..	41.67%	57.14%	-15.48%
201011	..	Sutton Utd	..	64.29%	72.62%	-8.33%
201011	..	Tonbridge Angels	..	50.00%	64.29%	-14.29%
201112	..	Billericay	..	34.52%	72.62%	-38.10%
201112	..	Hornchurch	..	39.29%	66.67%	-27.38%
				53.94%	70.24%	-16.29%

 This table bears a remarkable resemblance to the one for teams promoted from the NPL: again there is one team showing an increase in their success rate following promotion: it's AFC Wimbledon who, like Chester, had increasing momentum behind them.

The two teams promoted at the end of 2011-12, Billericay and Hornchurch, recorded the highest and third highest falls in success rate in their first season at step 2, and were both relegated.  There's one perhaps surprisingly large fall in success rate, given the size of the club involved - Dover's nearly 24% drop, but that was after a remarkably good rate of over 84% the previous year and the 60% plus they achieved after promotion was one of the higher ones returned by a promoted Isthmian league club.

Overall the implied difference between the Isthmian League and Conference South is around 14 points - a shade more than between the NPL and Conference North.

The final step 3 league to look at is The Southern League, which is the only one at this level (so far!) to exchange clubs with both step 2 divisions.

Again we'll look at the relegated clubs first - though there aren't many of them.

				Table F
				step 2	step 3	change
200506	..	Maidenhead	..	29.76%	59.52%	29.76%
200607	..	Bedford	..	27.38%	39.29%	11.90%
200910	..	Weymouth	..	20.24%	40.00%	19.76%
201011	..	Redditch	..	15.00%	44.05%	29.05%
201011	..	St Albans	..	32.14%	53.57%	21.43%
				24.90%	47.29%	22.38%

Note that I've left out Cambridge City from that table.  They were demoted  from Conference South in 2008 because of ground grading issues; they'd finished 14th, with a success rate of around 45%.    Justification the same as for Boston and Northwich in the NPL.
Only one of those teams (Redditch) was relegated from Conference North,  There are probably too few of them to draw any conclusions from - but that's not the case with teams promoted from the Southern League, of which there were several.  Let's begin with those going North:

				Table G
				step 2	step 3	change
200405	..	Hednesford	..	33.33%	59.52%	-26.19%
200708	..	Kings Lynn	..	45.24%	72.62%	-27.38%
200809	..	Corby	..	56.25%	70.24%	-13.99%
200809	..	Gloucester	..	37.50%	64.29%	-26.79%
200910	..	Nuneaton	..	63.75%	73.81%	-10.06%
201112	..	Brackley	..	70.24%	71.43%	-1.19%
201112	..	Oxford City	..	50.00%	65.48%	-15.48%
				50.90%	68.20%	-17.30%

And then those going to Conference South:

				Table H
				step 2	step 3	change
200405	..	Histon	..	59.52%	64.29%	-4.76%
200506	..	Salisbury	..	64.29%	77.38%	-13.10%
200506	..	Bedford	..	27.38%	64.29%	-36.90%
200607	..	Bath	..	58.33%	76.19%	-17.86%
200607	..	Maidenhead	..	40.48%	59.52%	-19.05%
200708	..	Team Bath	..	46.43%	69.05%	-22.62%
200910	..	Farnborough	..	67.86%	77.38%	-9.52%
201011	..	Truro	..	41.67%	75.00%	-33.33%
201011	..	Salisbury	..	50.00%	70.00%	-20.00%
				50.66%	70.34%	-19.68%

What strikes about those two tables is that the average success rate at step 2 is nearly the same for Conference North and Conference South - though the average success rate of teams promoted to Conference South was appreciably higher than that of those who went North.

Nobody improved their success rate; the nearest miss came from Brackley - a surprisingly low-profile wealthy non-League club.  There isn't really a giant club on its way back to its perceived rightful home  in either table.


So, what conclusions can we draw?

Teams from the NPL did far better, when promoted, than their counterparts from the Isthmian or Southern Leagues, and the Isthmian promotees did better than their Southern counterparts.

The Southern League, however, didn't have a big club making the step up while the NPL had three (Telford, Halifax  and Chester) while the Isthmian had one (AFC Wimbledon)

Those tables from the Southern League suggest that Conference North is a little bit weaker than Conference South.

That's just what the exercise covering the two step 2 divisions suggested.

As for whether the NPL or the Isthmian is the stronger league - it's hard to say; though both appear to be stronger than the Southern League.

That's broadly in agreement, then, with another exercise from @nltipping which looked at the relative strengths of the three step 3 leagues from another angle.
.

North v South

Time to resurrect this blog, and enter a debate on the relative strengths of Conference North and Conference South.     I'd been trying to find a way to work these out; The  tweeter NonLeague Football  - @nltipping - , has one approach and he concludes that the South is a little stronger.

I'd been taking a slightly different approach, and reached the same conclusions.

My method was to look at teams' "success rates" - in effect the percentage of maximum points gained, if there had been only two points on offer for a win, and not three: so a team winning and losing the same number of games in a season would get a 50% record, irrespective of how many games they had drawn.

First, then, the full table for teams moving between Conference Premier and Conference North.

• The first column shows the first season relevant for that team
• The second column shows the team name
• The third column shows whether hey were relegated or promoted after the season in column 1
• The fourth column shows their success rate in the Premier - which would be in the season named in column 1 if they were relegated and the season in column 2 if they were promoted
• The fifth column shows their success rate in the North - after relegation or before promotion
• The final column shows the difference between the two

		Table A
Club	P or R	In Prem	In North	N-P
Altrincham	P	36.90%	59.52%	22.62%
Southport	P	35.71%	70.24%	34.52%
Northwich	P	43.48%	75.00%	31.52%
Stafford	P	41.30%	71.43%	30.12%
Droylsden	P	20.65%	65.48%	44.82%
Farsley	P	31.52%	58.33%	26.81%
Barrow	P	42.39%	65.48%	23.08%
Kettering	P	59.78%	79.76%	19.98%
Gateshead	P	37.50%	66.67%	29.17%
Tamworth	P	43.18%	72.62%	29.44%
Fleetwood	P	60.87%	73.75%	12.88%
Southport	P	38.04%	76.25%	38.21%
Alfreton	P	42.39%	78.75%	36.36%
Telford	P	39.13%	73.75%	34.62%
Hyde	P	42.39%	75.00%	32.61%
Nuneaton	P	46.74%	66.67%	19.93%
Leigh	R	16.67%	36.90%	20.24%
Northwich	R	45.24%	75.00%	29.76%
Scarborough	R	33.33%	50.00%	16.67%
Southport	R	39.13%	65.48%	26.35%
Tamworth	R	38.04%	44.05%	6.00%
Droylsden	R	20.65%	59.52%	38.87%
Farsley	R	31.52%	39.29%	7.76%
Northwich	R	34.78%	53.75%	18.97%
Altrincham	R	35.87%	52.38%	16.51%
Histon	R	27.17%	46.43%	19.25%
		37.86%	63.52%	25.66%

So we can see from that that a team success rates in the Premier are around 25 points lower than  those in the North, from teams moving between the two. But are the rates he same for promoted and relegated teams?  



Here’s a table, showing the promoted clubs only:

		Table B
		In Prem	In North	N-P
200405	Altrincham	36.90%	59.52%	22.62%
200405	Southport	35.71%	70.24%	34.52%
200506	Northwich	43.48%	75.00%	31.52%
200506	Stafford	41.30%	71.43%	30.12%
200607	Droylsden	20.65%	65.48%	44.82%
200607	Farsley	31.52%	58.33%	26.81%
200708	Barrow	42.39%	65.48%	23.08%
200708	Kettering	59.78%	79.76%	19.98%
200809	Gateshead	37.50%	66.67%	29.17%
200809	Tamworth	43.18%	72.62%	29.44%
200910	Fleetwood	60.87%	73.75%	12.88%
200910	Southport	38.04%	76.25%	38.21%
201011	Alfreton	42.39%	78.75%	36.36%
201011	Telford	39.13%	73.75%	34.62%
201112	Hyde	42.39%	75.00%	32.61%
201112	Nuneaton	46.74%	66.67%	19.93%
		41.37%	70.54%	29.17%

And one, showing the relegated clubs only:

		Table C
		In Prem	In North	N-P
200405	Leigh	16.67%	36.90%	20.24%
200405	Northwich	45.24%	75.00%	29.76%
200506	Scarborough	33.33%	50.00%	16.67%
200607	Southport	39.13%	65.48%	26.35%
200607	Tamworth	38.04%	44.05%	6.00%
200708	Droylsden	20.65%	59.52%	38.87%
200708	Farsley	31.52%	39.29%	7.76%
200809	Northwich	34.78%	53.75%	18.97%
201011	Altrincham	35.87%	52.38%	16.51%
201011	Histon	27.17%	46.43%	19.25%
		32.24%	52.28%	20.04%

So the answer is no - there’s a far smaller change for relegated teams.  The same applies in the South, as we shall see.  On to the Premier v South figures, beginning with all of them:

			Table D
Season	Club	P or R	In Prem	In South	N-P
200405	Grays Ath	P	65.48%	80.95%	15.48%
200405	Farnborough	R	27.38%	65.48%	38.10%
200506	Weymouth	P	48.91%	76.19%	27.28%
200506	St Albans	P	32.61%	70.24%	37.63%
200607	Histon	P	56.52%	76.19%	19.67%
200607	Salisbury	P	54.35%	63.10%	8.75%
200607	St Albans	R	32.61%	38.10%	5.49%
200708	Lewes	P	19.57%	73.81%	54.24%
200708	Eastbourne	P	45.65%	67.86%	22.20%
200809	AFC Wimbledon	P	52.27%	73.81%	21.54%
200809	Hayes & Yeading	P	40.91%	67.86%	26.95%
200809	Woking	R	36.96%	60.71%	23.76%
200809	Weymouth	R	34.78%	20.24%	-14.54%
200809	Lewes	R	19.57%	39.29%	19.72%
200910	Newport	P	55.43%	84.52%	29.09%
200910	Bath	P	51.09%	61.90%	10.82%
200910	Ebbsfleet	R	36.36%	66.67%	30.30%
201011	Ebbsfleet	P	43.48%	66.67%	23.19%
201011	Braintree	P	48.91%	73.81%	24.90%
201011	Eastbourne	R	31.52%	39.29%	7.76%
201112	Woking	P	47.83%	79.76%	31.94%
201112	Dartford	P	51.09%	73.81%	22.72%
201112	Hayes & Yeading	R	32.61%	41.67%	9.06%
201112	Bath	R	26.09%	47.62%	21.53%
			41.33%	62.90%	21.56%

So the overall change is a little smaller between Premier and South than it is between Premier and North, implying that Conference South is a little stronger than Conference North.
Note that Weymouth were relegated from the Premier and had a lower pints total in the South than they had in the Premier; it’s the only case of this happening between steps 1 and 2.   Weymouth had terrible financial problems at the time, from which they are only now beginning to recover.  It says something important about non-League: clubs with financial problems seem to be far more seriously affected by them, and far sooner, than they are in the Football League or Premier League.

Now look at the promoted clubs only:

		Table E
		In Prem	In South	N-P
200405	Grays Ath	65.48%	80.95%	15.48%
200506	Weymouth	48.91%	76.19%	27.28%
200506	St Albans	32.61%	70.24%	37.63%
200607	Histon	56.52%	76.19%	19.67%
200607	Salisbury	54.35%	63.10%	8.75%
200708	Lewes	19.57%	73.81%	54.24%
200708	Eastbourne	45.65%	67.86%	22.20%
200809	AFC Wimbledon	52.27%	73.81%	21.54%
200809	Hayes & Yeading	40.91%	67.86%	26.95%
200910	Newport	55.43%	84.52%	29.09%
200910	Bath	51.09%	61.90%	10.82%
201011	Ebbsfleet	43.48%	66.67%	23.19%
201011	Braintree	48.91%	73.81%	24.90%
201112	Woking	47.83%	79.76%	31.94%
201112	Dartford	51.09%	73.81%	22.72%
		47.61%	72.70%	25.09%

And finally the relegated clubs only:

		Table E
		In Prem	In South	N-P
200405	Farnborough	27.38%	65.48%	38.10%
200607	St Albans	32.61%	38.10%	5.49%
200809	Woking	36.96%	60.71%	23.76%
200809	Weymouth	34.78%	20.24%	-14.54%
200809	Lewes	19.57%	39.29%	19.72%
200910	Ebbsfleet	36.36%	66.67%	30.30%
201011	Eastbourne	31.52%	39.29%	7.76%
201112	Hayes & Yeading	32.61%	41.67%	9.06%
201112	Bath	26.09%	47.62%	21.53%
		30.88%	46.56%	15.69%

So again we get the pattern whereby relegated clubs see a smaller change in their fortunes than promoted clubs do.


The overall impression from these figures is that the South is stronger than the North - by about  4 success rate points; that takes figures from Table A and Table D.  Those take an average figure from all teams moving between Premier and North/South; but in each case, the number of teams promoted is higher than the number relegated.  This is because of an extension the Premier after 2005-06 and various reprieves from relegation caused by team closures or compulsory demotions by more than one division.

Hence he true figure for the differences between the two levels is probably a little smaller in each case.

The Premier is, using the average of the two differences between Prem and North,  24.58 points stronger than the North rather than the 25.66 given; and the Prem is, using the same figures, about 20.39 points stronger than the South.
So the South is something over 4 success rate points stronger than the North.  

What does that mean?

Well, imagine a team in the South with a 50% success rate.  Assuming they draw 10 of their games, that would leave 16 wins and 16 losses.

My figures suggest - and it’s a very general  suggestion - that a team of exactly the same strength, playing in the North, would return a success rate of about 54.2% - something approaching 46 points in a 42 games season with 2 points for a win, or, assuming 10 draws again, around 5 extra points in a 42 game season with 3 points for a win.